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Colloquium April 24

Date: Thursday April 24

Time: 16:00 to 17:00 (coffee and cookies 15:30, also Robeson 103)

Place: 103 Robeson

Speaker: Chris L. Pettit, Air Force Research Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB

Title: Uncertainty Quantification for Aeroelasticity

Abstract

Widespread interest in uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for airframe design and certification is driven by the desire to realize acquisition and operational cost savings through increased reliance on analysis, the goal being to design and produce robust airframes while simultaneously meeting stringent performance requirements, especially in military applications. Accounting for static and dynamic aeroelastic effects is a particularly important component of the airframe design process because they often control the safety and performance of the design; thus, the impact of uncertainty on aeroelastic response prediction recently has begun to receive substantial attention in the research literature. The relevance of this trend is accentuated by the increasing prominence of unique airframe concepts that may be extremely dependent on new materials, aeroelastic tailoring, or their ability to undergo large controlled deformations.

In the presentation, basic UQ concepts will be described along with general sources of uncertainty that complicate airframe design and testing. Useful methods for estimating variability in the response of aeroelastic systems will also be summarized; these include approximate reliability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and polynomial chaos expansions. This will be followed by a brief assessment of the potential consequences of nonlinear behavior in uncertain aeroelastic systems. Recent applications of uncertainty quantification to various aeroelastic problems (e.g., prediction of limit-cycle oscillations) will be reviewed with an emphasis on physical insight deduced from these studies. Finally, challenges and needs will be explored to suggest future steps that must be completed to enable practical application of uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity design and certification.

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